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Gold Silver Worlds: As we have finally arrived in the magic year 2014, in which almost every economic and business cycle is trending down, it seems that things are perfectly lining up for a melt down. If it would have been true that the debt crisis was contained (like our political leaders try to make us believe), then there is a huge divergence with recent trends.
Are we pessimistic? No. Are we optimistic? We do our best. Above all, we aim to be unbiased and neutral. In any case, this article is not an attempt to predict prices or to time any market. That is useless and serves only marketing purposes. This article looks at six different trends which are lining up for an historic sell off in the markets. As readers observe, we stay as factual as possible.
Trend 1: Market distortions because of QE appearing in emerging markets
Up until now, the vast majority of economic and financial pundits have been praising the Western central banks for their monetary miracles. The last two weeks, however, were extremely important as we got evidence of the direct destructive effects of monetary easing. In particular, the carnage in emerging markets and their respective currencies revealed that things can get out of hand and have the ability to spiral out of control (much faster than governments can intervene).
Bloomberg says this is the worst selloff in emerging-market currencies in five years, revealing the impact from the Federal Reserve’s tapering of monetary stimulus. “Investors are losing confidence in some of the biggest developing nations, extending the currency-market rout triggered last year when the Fed first signaled it would scale back stimulus. While Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa were the engines of global growth following the financial crisis in 2008, emerging markets now pose a threat to world financial stability.”
Once the destructive power of this monetary experiment starts manifesting itself, it is likely to see spill over effects to all markets. Monetary easing could still look like innocent and constructive, but the side effects are unknown at present, as this is the first monetary experiment at this scale. The most concerning fact is that nobody has an idea about how exactly the markets will react on each slice of tapering, and the precise timing of all effects (including the unintended consequences).
Trend 2: There are almost no buyers left in equities
Equity markets have shown exceptional yields in 2013. In a world with no yields, investors are chasing assets which yield more than nothing.
It has been thought that quantitative easing would create bubbles, but as it looks now it is resulting in bubbles in specific asset classes, as Marc Faber correctly predicted a while ago. The problem is that sentiment in the stock market has become far too optimistic. It’s not surprising, nor are investors or traders to blame, in a zero-yield world. The first chart shows the extreme optimism based on a bull/bear ratio.
Another red flag is related to margin debt, see next chart. It shows the level of leverage in the equity market.
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